There is bad news for those who are keeping any hope of getting rid of the menace of Kovid within the next 3-6 months, scientists say that we should gear up for more than what we have suffered. Due to the outbreak of Corona Epidemic, schools will be closed again, classes will be postponed again, staff working in nursing homes who have been vaccinated will be afraid of getting infected again, employees will be in fear of returning to the office Because the hospitals will be horribly full.
By the end of the epidemic, almost everyone will have either been vaccinated or will have been infected, experts are unanimous about this. There may be some who have to face the virus twice, this game of infection and new variants will continue until either everyone in the world is vaccinated or everyone is exposed to the virus. .
According to the news of NDTV, Michael Ostholm, director of the Infectious Disease Research and Policy Center of Minneosta University in Minneapolis and advisor to US President Joe Biden, says that according to me, these booms are being seen continuously around the world. It will reduce rapidly again, and then we will see a new surge in winter this year.
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As we all know that the chances of dying of the virus are very low and still crores of people around the world are yet to get the vaccine. In such a situation, there is every possibility that the corona may spread again in the coming times from classes, public transport, and the place of work, but it is also necessary to keep it running to maintain the economic condition better. Even if the immunization rate increases, there will always be people who are vulnerable to the virus, such as newborns, people who cannot be vaccinated, or people who have been vaccinated but have their own defense system so much. is not strong. If a vaccine resistant variant is developed, then a new problem will have to be dealt with, that is, the coming few months will be difficult. Osterholm says that the coronavirus is like a wildfire that will not stop until it finds all the human-like wood that can burn.
covid vs other pandemics
According to epidemiologist Lon Simonson, professor and epidemiologist of Population Health Science at Rosklyde University in Denmark, blueprints of properly prepared documents of 5 influenza pandemics that have occurred in the past 130 years can predict how Kovid will work.
While the longest-lasting flu outbreaks lasted five years, most involved an average of two to four waves of infection over two or three years, he says. While Kovid is already taking the shape of serious epidemics, by the end of its second year the world is in the grip of third wave and no end is in sight yet.
There is every possibility that SARS CoV-2 may not take a stand like the previous epidemics, anyway it is different, newer and more deadly and infectious than them. Due to this, 46 lakh deaths have been registered worldwide so far. From the Spanish flu in 1918 to all other outbreaks, it is twice as deadly.
Countries like America, UK, Russia, and Israel, which were top in terms of vaccination, are now seeing a surge in cases again. The only difference is that due to the vaccine, the disease is not serious but is showing a mild form. But the increase in infection suggests that the virus can prove fatal for young people and people who have not been vaccinated.
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Countries such as Malaysia, Mexico, Iran and Australia where vaccination has been scattered. There is now a danger of an outbreak of deadly and infectious delta variant. This is the same variant which is still out of control worldwide. Along with this, there is also a danger of the emergence of a new variant. According to Simonson, history shows that there is a common belief that the virus itself becomes mild after a time, he says this belief is wrong. Although new mutations are not always serious, epidemics are most dangerous during their time when the virus has adapted to a new host.
Even before the arrival of Kovid, if there was a ray of hope, it was the vaccine that provided complete and long-term protection, just as the vaccine in childhood could prevent a disease like polio.
Kanta Subbarao, director of the World Health Organization’s Center for Reference and Research on Influenza, says that there are many cases around the world and mutations are happening continuously. The case of infection in this epidemic is very big, due to which it is becoming very difficult to understand the virus. As a result, Kovid can be like the flu, taking vaccine topups continuously until the virus continues to develop on its own.
Some researchers say that SARS CoV-2 is on the way to become completely resistant to the first generation vaccine. According to a study conducted in Japan which is yet to be reviewed, according to the global database related to the delta variant is already under investigation. At present, the strain which is break-through or more lethal has also not been properly investigated.
In the coming months, along with the increase of the novel influenza virus, there is also a danger of a new virus coming from animals to humans. Subbarao says that as we all know that coronavirus has come from animals to humans. In such a situation, there is also a risk of developing another zoonotic coronavirus in the future.
How will covid go?
It is clear that the epidemic is not going anywhere in the next 6 months. Experts are unanimous that as long as 90 to 95 percent of the world’s population gain immunity through infection or by getting a vaccine, then this outbreak can be controlled.
Simonson says that there is only one weapon for this, the vaccine. Living without a vaccine is like waiting for your turn, which will come sometime in summer or in winter.
According to Bloomberg’s vaccine tracker, about 5.66 billion doses have been administered worldwide, in most countries of Africa only 5 percent of the population has been covered, while in India only 26 percent of the people have been vaccinated so far. Experts say that the end of the epidemic will happen everywhere at a different time.
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